The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar (US) opened higher

The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar (US) opened higher, along with the weakening of Uncle Sam’s currency. The US dollar weakened in line with the higher Fed interest rates prospect, due to high inflation data in the US. Launched Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Rupiah on exchange rate trading on the Asian Market rose 61 points or 0.45% to Rp13.568 per USD. The daily movement of Rupiah, is in the range of Rp13.545 per USD – Rp13.595 per USD. While Yahoo finance recorded the Rupiah rose 56 points or 0.41% to Rp13.568 per USD. In Yahoo finance monitoring, Rupiah is in the Rp13,553range per USD to Rp13,626 per USD. The dollar weakened against other major currencies in late trading on Wednesday. The weakening dollar was triggered by investors who digested the latest US economic report. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.65% to 89.124 in late trading. In late New York trade, the euro rose to USD1.2444 from USD1.2363 in the previous session, and the British pound rose to USD1,3995 from USD1,3886 in the previous session. The Australian dollar rose to USD0.7918 from USD0.7859. The US dollar bought 107.04 Japanese yen, down from 107.68 yen in the previous session. The US dollar dipped to 0.9303 Swiss francs from 0.9342 Swiss francs, and dropped to 1.2517 Canadian dollars from 1.2594 Canadian dollars. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported initial US retail sales and food services estimates for January 2018 reached USD492.0 billion, down 0.3% from the previous month, failing to meet market expectations for a 0.3% rise.

Indonesian stock market opened continuing gains and getting closer to its highest level. The Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) rose 19 points or 0.3% to 6,614. Initial trading, there were 139 stocks higher, 20 stocks weakened, and 77 shares stagnant. This morning, there has been trade transactions reached Rp275, 98 billion from 365.77 million shares traded. The LQ45 index rose 3.19 points or 0.29% to 1,114, the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) rose 2.87 points, or 0.37% to 781, the IDX30 index rose 1.3 points or 0.22% to 609 and the index MNC36 rose 1.15 points, or 0.3%, to 381. The mining sector led the strengthening of JCI this morning, with the increase reaching 1.51%. While the consumption sector is still stuck with a rise of only 0.01%. The stocks in the top gainers, among others, PT Hexindo Adiperkasa, Tbk (HEXA) shares rose Rp50 or 1.5% to Rp3,300, PT Bank Harda International, Tbk (BBHI) shares rose Rp30 or 14% to Rp244 and PT Bank Ganesha, Tbk (BGTG) shares rose Rp28 or 19% to Rp175. Meanwhile, stocks in the top losers category, including PT Gudang Garam,Tbk (GGRM) stocks fell Rp950 or 1.1% to Rp82,200, PT (INTP) shares fell Rp600 or 2.8% to Rp20,550, and shares of PT United Tractor,Tbk (UNTR) fell Rp500 or 1.3% to Rp38.250.
Indonesia Composite Bond Index (ICBI) note negative return on Wednesday’s end of day at -0.2062 point to 244,8238 level. The INDOBeXG-Total Return performance also weakened by -0.2423 point to 241,8804 level. However, the corporate bond market recorded a positive return as reflected by the INDOBeXC-Total Return increase of + 0.0533 point to the level of 255.9349. The yield curve of IBPA-IGSYC (IBPA-Indonesia Government Securities Yield Curve) is patterned mixed. The average yield of all tenors (1-30 years) rose by + 1.14 bps. Only the average yield of short tenor (<5years) decreased by -1.24bps. While the average yield of medium (5-7years) and long (> 7years) tenors rose by + 1.43bps and + 1.52bps respectively. So INDOBeXG-Effective Yield increased by + 0.0140 points to 6.4192 level. The benchmark SUNs prices are dominated by correction with the average price down -3.40bps. Only the FR0063 series is up which is +14.46bps. In line with the SUN, the benchmark series of all SBN series appear to be marked by price correction with an average attenuation of -10.05 bps. With this condition INDOBeXG-Clean Price weakened by -0.1468 point to 119.3271 level. Transactions in the secondary market declined. Trading frequency decreased by -7.54% from 849 transactions to 785 transactions. The decline also occurred in terms of volume of -33.69% from Rp15, 95tn to Rp10, 58tn. For trading series of SUN reference series decreased in terms of volume of -57.55% from Rp7, 34tn to Rp3, 12tn. While the trading of benchmark SUN frequency increased slightly by + 0.55% from 365 transactions to 367 transactions. The most traded series listed by FR0065 is transacted 157 times and with volume Rp428miliar. The corporate bonds with the most transactions listed by the series SIISAT02ECN2 with 8 times frequency the transaction and the volume of Rp135miliar. The Indonesian bond market continues to be overshadowed by expectations of a faster-than-expected rise in US inflation. Some market participants also appear to anticipate the US inflation data release as reflected in the decline in transaction activity. For a stable risk perception reflected in the thin rise of the 5-year Indonesian Bond Credit Default Swap (CDS) of + 0.03bps to the level of 92.48 bps. The rupiah exchange rate against the USD appears to be limited, rising slightly by + 0.16% to Rp13.629 / US $ (Bloomberg spot rate). For information, the release of US inflation data for January showed a 0,5% mom or above the consensus rate of 0.3% mom. Under these conditions, expectations of a more aggressive increase in the Fed’s interest rates increased. The bond market on Thursday trading has the potential to return to depression. The condition was boosted by a higher-than-expected US data inflation release, which in turn pushed pressure on the Fed to raise its more aggressive benchmark interest rate. The market will also pay close attention to the press conference resulting from the Governors Meeting (RDG) of Indonesia Bank Board later in the day. However, the pressure on the market may not be as deep as before. This is supported by the strengthening of the rupiah against USD this morning opened higher to the level of Rp13.577 / US $ (Bloomberg spot rate).


On Wednesday, US inflation / CPI data that posted the biggest increase in the past year boosted a Fed rate hike expectations in March. But on the other hand, bad retail sales data raises doubts about the US economy this year, especially if interest rates are raised later. After the two data release yesterday, Bank J.P. Morgan lowered its projected US economic growth in the first quarter of 2018 to 2.5% from 3.0% previously.
Potential Movement
Looking at some estimates of today’s US economic data lower than before, gold prices will likely rise as long as it remains above the 1345 support, targeting the 1365 area.
Crude oil
The EIA, which reported a rise in US stockpiles, was slightly lower than its estimate, pushing crude prices higher, potentially continuing today with a 62.20 target. Nearest support in the 60.50, and 60.00range. While holding above 60.00 oil still tends to strengthen.

Eurozone economic growth is predicted to get better while on the other hand the market began to doubt will the US economic growth open opportunities for continued increase in EURUSD. The target is to the area of 1.2530, with support at 1.2390.

GBPUSD rise is more due to the pressure experienced by the US dollar, as long as survive above the psychological level of 1.4000 GBPUSD potentially rise to 1.4070 area. Meanwhile, if stuck below 1.4000, GBPUSD possibly down to 1.3920 area. USDJPY monetary penalties expectations in Japan put pressure on USDJPY, coupled with doubts about US economic growth making the sell-off continue. USDJPY potentially descended to 105.20 area as long as it does not break above 107.30. AUDUSD The Australian employment release change data slightly above estimation opens opportunities for continued AUDUSD hikes. If able to break the resistance 0.7960 AUDUSD potentially going up to 0.7980 to 0.8000. Support in the range of 0.7890.
Here are the Indonesian Economic Indicators we update on Thursday 15/02/2018 at 11:21 am:

Source: bloomberg / afp / xhua / bi / ojk / kemenkeu / bps / reuters / antara / ibpa / kontan / bisnis / wartaekonomi / investordaily / bbc / kompas / liputan6

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